We forecast global smartphone sales will decline -5% YoY by volume in 2023 under the neutral scenario. Consumer’s demand on new smartphone devices has been further weakened amid the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, the rolling covid cases in China, and the cloudy global economy outlook.
Compared to the June 2022 version, we bumped up our smartphone sales forecast number on Huawei’s Harmony OS in 2023. The Chinese vendor managed to stabilize its global performance with its 4G product portfolios and its performance in the domestic market beat our expectation. Meanwhile, we lowered our sales forecast number on Apple iOS, factoring the escalated manufacture disruption for Apple products in China, especially in Foxconn Zhengzhou factories, and Apple’s accelerated manufacturing shift outside the country. We also lowered our sales forecast number on Android which suffered most from the unfavoured market condition. In addition to the softened demand, major Android vendors are facing overstocked inventories and stronger headwinds in overseas markets amid geopolitical tensions and the deglobalization trend.
Nevertheless, Android will remain the largest smartphone OS in the global market with roughly 80% volume share in our forecast period. iOS will enjoy solid growth, benefiting from Huawei’s fallout in premium segment and penetration towards lower price segment with legacy devices and new SE devices.
Though the initial performance of Harmony OS beats our expectation, we remain cautious on its future, considering the gloomy outlook of Huawei’s future in smartphone domain and assuming no interference from China government with local vendors’ decisions on OS.
Our latest report Global Smartphone Sales Forecast by Operating System for 88 Countries: 2007 to 2027 was published. The report forecasts global smartphone sales, by 15 operating systems, for 88 countries worldwide, from 2007 to 2027. WSS clients could access the full report via this link.
