According to TechInsights (Strategy Analytics)’s WSS channel latest forecast report, global smartphone shipment volume will fall -10% YoY in 2022. The downturn track will continue through 2023 but the decline rate would get improved to -5% YoY. Global smartphone shipment volume will hit the lowest level since 2014. It is a very tough period for the whole industry.
We have weighted multiple moving factors / assumptions underlying the latest forecast model, mainly including the manufacture disruption in China due to the resurgent COVD cases, on-going inventory adjustments across the industry, geopolitical issues, as well as the gloomy macroeconomic outlook.
We expect Samsung and Apple will maintain the top two list with the improved market share during the forecast window. Both will outperform overall market this and next year. In contrast, Xiaomi, OPPO (OnePlus) and vivo etc. would underperform overall market and follow the downturn track in 2022 and 2023. Among Android players, only Google and Reliance Jio would see solid growth in 2023, benefiting from the low base effect.
